Research Papers

Assylbek Assylkhanov, Graduate of the OSCE Academy (2025)

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 altered economic integration in Eurasia. Sanctions imposed on Russia led to the West’s blockage of the Northern Corridor and elevated the role of the Middle Corridor, which passes through Central Asia. Kazakhstan in particular has been actively promoting the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). This route goes through Southeast Asia, China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, and advances to Europe. Considering the impact of the Russian war in Ukraine on the connectivity of Eurasia, this research analyses the effects of the increase in global interest in the Middle Corridor on Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, economic development, and role in regional cooperation. The research is based on the analysis of data retrieved from the databases of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies and the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan on investments and trade turnover, as well as on the information gathered in interviews with experts from international institutions and think tanks. This research argues that the growing interest in the Middle Corridor has impacted the economic course of Kazakhstan, which in turn is shaping the multi-vector foreign policy of the country. Despite the developed infrastructure of the Northern Corridor, the Middle Corridor, with its route bypassing Russia, is becoming a critical juncture of connectivity between China and the European Union. The paper emphasizes the political significance of the Middle Corridor for Kazakhstan’s position in Eurasia, as well as its importance for economic development and regional cooperation in the Central Asian and South Caucasian states.

Dana Ubaidolla, Graduate of the OSCE Academy (2025)

Abstract

This research paper sets out to answer the overarching question, “How irreversible is the nuclear disarmament of countries that have voluntarily given up their nuclear weapons?” with a specific sub-question of, “How irreversible is Ukraine’s decision of nuclear disarmament in the context of Russia’s war against it?” Drawing on four cases—South Africa, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine—path dependency theory is used to illuminate how initial decisions to relinquish nuclear arsenals become “locked in” over time through increasing returns, high switching costs, adaptive expectations, and normative entrenchment. This research paper reveals that voluntary nuclear disarmament, though not infallible, can become deeply rooted through path dependency. Under normal circumstances, the convergence of self-reinforcing technical, economic, and normative factors renders a return to nuclear arms prohibitively costly. Even harsh shocks—like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—have not reversed disarmament in practice, though they may inspire new debates and rhetorical regrets. Ultimately, irreversibility emerges not as an absolute, static condition but as a robust, evolving equilibrium. So long as the international community continues to uphold non-proliferation norms, sustain effective institutions, and provide incentives for peaceful nuclear development, the states that once chose to disarm will likely remain on that track—demonstrating that, despite inherent fragility, the post-disarmament status quo can endure even under profound strain.

Pengshan Pan, Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Abstract

This study examines the role of public irrigation infrastructure in mitigating climate-induced conflicts in Afghanistan, with a focus on individual engagement with armed groups. Through the analysis of Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) data from 2017 to 2021, as well as Afghan Household Surveys from 2014 and 2017, this study emphasizes the differentiated effectiveness of various irrigation systems in addressing water-related conflicts. Large-scale, externally aided irrigation projects, such as river dams and canals, may be inadequate in dissuading individuals from participating in armed conflict. In contrast, locally driven, community-based irrigation practices, exemplified by kariz systems, demonstrate promise in alleviating climate-related stressors and reducing the intensity of conflicts.

Dr. Aliya Assubayeva, Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Abstract

Water security has become increasingly significant in Central Asian republics due to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change and growing water demand. This importance is amplified by the complex transboundary river basins, interconnected water-energy infrastructure in the Aral Sea basin, rising water distribution disputes among riparian countries, and the vulnerability of water resources to climate change. Effective decision-making at all levels regarding water resource allocation and management is assumed to contribute to achieving water security. This research paper focuses on exploring the sources of endogenous uncertainty in managing water resources with case studies of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. The study adopts qualitative methods, specifically content and narrative analysis, to gather and analyze data from two interview phases (involving decision-makers at national and local levels and university representatives), academic literature, and policy reports. The research emphasizes endogenous uncertainties arising from the decision-making system and identifies key factors to mitigate them, including improved data availability and analysis, resilient infrastructure, and enhanced capacity. The study acknowledges the potential rise in exogenous uncertainties caused by limited transboundary cooperation, climate change impacts, and growing water needs. It highlights the significance of recognizing and comprehending the nature and effects of uncertainties. By doing so, Central Asian countries can make more informed decisions and work towards achieving sustainable and resilient water security in the region.

Burulcha Sulaimanova, Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Nima Khorrami, Associate Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Rashid Gabdulhakov, Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Abstract

Although important incidents of misleading information related to the global COVID-19 pandemic have been examined by both journalists and academics, the various sources of such information and the magnitude of its impact have yet to be fully comprehended. Additionally, there are cases and contexts that are underrepresented in current studies. To address this gap, this article examines the online social milieux of labour migrants from Uzbekistan to Russia as potential source of misleading information related to COVID-19. Specifically, this article looks at discussions and posts shared on thematic groups across social media platforms such as Odnoklassniki, VKontakte, Facebook, and Telegram through a netnographic lens, identifying five COVID-19-related narrative clusters: ‘the remedy,’ ‘practical information,’ ‘the news,’ ‘asking for help,’ and ‘conspiracies and religion.’ As all these narrative clusters have been found to contain misleading information, the article initiates a discussion on the role that thematic social media groups can play in (dis)informing labour migrants.

Kinga Szalkai, Associate Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Abstract

This paper discusses the impact of COVID-19 on the recent positive turn in the dynamics of regional water cooperation (the so-called ‘water thaw’) in Central Asia, starting from the research question whether the pandemic could challenge the emerging cooperation of the ‘water thaw’. In order to explore this, the analysis is divided into three parts. First, it examines the effects of the pandemic on the economic, social, and political variables influencing water-related issues. The analysis of these intervening variables shows how the adverse impact of the pandemic on different areas has the potential to challenge regional water cooperation. The second part focuses on recent events and developments related to regional cooperation. The third part examines functioning of regional cooperation in sensitive cases (Sardoba dam 2020, Kyrgyz-Tajik 2021).

Ajar Chekirova, Research Fellow, OSCE Academy

Abstract

This study investigates the conditions under which migrants engage politically with virtual communities; when and how online participation spills over to real-world social mobilization; and whether cross-border online-offline political participation creates a new form of transnational citizenship. Content analysis shows crisis conditions trigger bursts of political activism that can carry over to fundraising and protest mobilization.

By Olivier Korthals Altes, Associate Research Fellow in 2018, OSCE Academy

This research paper is an abridged version of the author’s Master’s thesis, analysing the policy–practice gap of democratic police reforms and the role of civil society.

Ryskeldi Satke and Franco Galdini

The paper discusses Kazakhstan’s long-term development vision and infrastructural history, places Nazarbayev’s 2050 vision in political context, and identifies several challenges.

Report by: David Gullette

The 2014 study reviewed national policies on conflict management in the Kyrgyz mining sector and included field research. Interview (BBC Kyrgyz Service): link

By Max Bader, Research and Teaching Fellow in 2010, OSCE Academy

This working paper questions the rationale behind party assistance in the region.

By Kevin Koehler, Research and Teaching Fellow in 2009, OSCE Academy

This research project examined political dynamics in Kyrgyzstan since the 2005 “Tulip Revolution” and presents field research findings from 2009.